In Reflections on Intelligence, R. V. Jones briefly reviews the British decision to adopt a convoy system during World War I. The case brings to light two useful insights: (1) know your data’s heritage and (2) value the opinions of junior officers. It also emphasizes how easy it is to work at cross purposes within the same organization. Read on …

The Boston Marathon bombing, the plant explosion in West, TX, and ongoing events around the world represent the types of unexpected surprises that red teamers are expected to explore through planning, simulation, and modeling. When the unexpected occurs, how can the red team overcome the chaos, help control the situation, and manage the outcomes while less mentally prepared individuals curl up into a ball under their desks? Resiliency in thought, action, and organizations can be instilled through training, planning, and flexibility in decision making processes. Read on …

Pre- and Post-Event Red Teaming

April 16, 2013

In December 2008, I posted a short article on Red Team Journal discussing a simple hierarchical model of surprise. I divided the elements of surprise into three levels: strategic (who, why); operational (how, what); and tactical (when, where). If you view the model as a pyramid, the strategic level is the base, the operation level [...]

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Red Teaming North Korea

April 12, 2013

The actions of Kim Jong-un and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have surprised and frustrated analysts and national security thinkers’ best guesses over the past weeks. In life, there are adversaries and competitors who are unpredictable, and act contrary to your best assessment of their predicted behaviors. The difficulty of determining the strategy [...]

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We Have a Winner!

April 3, 2013

The contest for the RTJ Red Teaming Law #20 is over, and we have a winner! Riccardo Cappelli won with the following entry: RTJ Red Teaming Law #20: If you defeat the red team, you still have to defeat the enemy. And if you do not win the war, you can always blame the red [...]

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Blood in the Water: Another Call for Strategic Red Teaming

March 26, 2013

This morning I re-read a short piece I posted in 2010 titled “Red Team Journal, Thirteen Years On.” In it, I wrote “Chicken Little frets about a dystopian future in which the United States is broken and broke.” I argued that we could no longer compensate for our limitations by throwing money at them, and [...]

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Watermark Red Teaming Service

March 25, 2013

I rarely use Red Team Journal to promote my day job, but in this case I’m going to make an exception. We’ve revamped our red teaming service at Watermark, and I think we’ve done something unique: we’ve broken down the service into functions and are offering our clients the opportunity to select which functions make [...]

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See It Like Jones Would: Rocket FUD

March 21, 2013

In the spirit of the last “Jones” post, I’d like to revisit his narrative on the V-2. One of the key questions Jones and his colleagues struggled with was the size of the rocket and the rocket’s warhead. The experts’ estimates were at times rashly speculative (for which Jones excoriated them—a subject for another post).

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See It Like Jones Would: The Power of Authentic Confidence

March 16, 2013

During the latter part of the war, British intelligence struggled with the growing threat of German rockets. As new and sometimes contradictory information emerged, R. V. Jones and his colleagues struggled to assemble a coherent picture of German capabilities. Jones, a master of rethinking assumptions, considered a possibility that the experts had overlooked, which in [...]

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Contest: Red Teaming Law #20

March 1, 2013

We now have 19 RTJ red teaming laws. For number 20 we’re going to do something a little different: we’re opening it up to you, our readers. Send us your one- or two-sentence red teaming law with a one-sentence humorous kicker, and we’ll pick the best one. Imagine—this is your chance to achieve red teaming [...]

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