A red teamer or analyst should always consider complex problems from alternative perspectives. One alternative perspective on the current economic crisis is that advocated by the free market economists of the Austrian school. Nobel Prize winner Friedrich Hayek is one of the tradition’s better known thought leaders; Ludwig von Mises is another. [click to continue ...]
From the monthly archives:
October 2008
According to Philip Tetlock, hedgehogs force data into predetermined models. As one might expect, hedgehogs are frequently wrong, and they learn slowly, in part because they rationalize their poor predictions while leaving their faulty models intact. Hedgehogs tend to be self-assured and overconfident, almost by definition. [click to continue ...]
In early 1999, before Bush popularized the phrase “Axis of Evil,” we posted the Axis 2001 scenario on Red Team Journal. In the scenario, we sketched a future in which self interest and opportunity draw together several U.S. competitors and potential adversaries. We are reposting the scenario now because some of the broad trends we posited now appear to be unfolding in real life. That said, the purpose of most scenario exercises is not to predict the future but to generate alternative contexts for planning. Nearly 10 years on, I hope we have prepared for something like the Axis 2001 scenario. If not, I hope we are preparing now. [click to continue ...]
Red Team Journal is pleased to announce that Jeff Cares has joined the RTJ advisory board. Jeff is a thought leader in information-age military innovation and the primary author of several transformational concepts, including distributed networked operations, sense-and-respond logistics, and the information-age combat model. Harvard Business Review selected Jeff’s research to the Top 20 list of “Breakthrough Ideas for 2006,” and he has been featured in such information age bellwethers as Wired and Fast Company. Additionally, he is the author of Distributed Networked Operations: The Fundamentals of Network Centric Warfare and has published pioneering work in the application of complex systems research to military problems. His new book, Operations Research for Networked Military Systems, will be available soon. Jeff is a combat veteran of the first Gulf War. His military career has included multiple command tours and more than a decade of service on four-star staffs.
