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Report: Global Trends 2025

The National Intelligence Council’s report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World is now available on the Director of National Intelligence’s Web site. In the report, the Council reviews and integrates an array of trends and forces that are likely to shape the future. The Council concludes, among other things, that “The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized,” that wealth will continue to flow from West to East, and that resource constraints may “[raise] the specter of scarcities.” At times, the report sounds almost Malthusian.
      While the Council’s credentials are impeccable, the effort generally yields broad assertions framed by carefully phrased caveats. After digesting the report, a thoughtful reader should review the limitations of scenario planning and perhaps reconsider the Council’s assessment with a red teamer’s eye for the unlikely but irresistible twists of history that have led us to where we are today.

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