Comments on: Fictional Strategies, Real-World Answers http://redteamjournal.com/2009/09/fictional-strategies-real-world-answers/ Red teaming and alternative analysis for national security and business advantage. Sat, 06 Mar 2010 20:32:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Adam Elkus http://redteamjournal.com/2009/09/fictional-strategies-real-world-answers/comment-page-1/#comment-1831 Adam Elkus Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:01:35 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1926#comment-1831 Mark Safranski has been doing something of a series as well as on the cognitive requirements for strategy: http://zenpundit.com/?p=3158 Mark Safranski has been doing something of a series as well as on the cognitive requirements for strategy: http://zenpundit.com/?p=3158

]]> By: Mark Mateski http://redteamjournal.com/2009/09/fictional-strategies-real-world-answers/comment-page-1/#comment-1830 Mark Mateski Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:09:16 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1926#comment-1830 Adam, I agree. I also think that the challenge is growing as the world becomes more complex. I don't want to minimize the complexity of the ancient world--many of the factors that generate complexity and uncertainty today existed then--but conflict today involves dimensions and pressures that simply didn't exist anciently, at least to the same degree. Our basic cognitive ability to overcome biases, see through deception, and posit winning strategies hasn't kept pace with change, despite the interesting possibilities inherent in computer-based aids and simulations. In fact, too much faith in these technologies can arguably do more harm than good. Mark Adam,

I agree. I also think that the challenge is growing as the world becomes more complex. I don’t want to minimize the complexity of the ancient world–many of the factors that generate complexity and uncertainty today existed then–but conflict today involves dimensions and pressures that simply didn’t exist anciently, at least to the same degree. Our basic cognitive ability to overcome biases, see through deception, and posit winning strategies hasn’t kept pace with change, despite the interesting possibilities inherent in computer-based aids and simulations. In fact, too much faith in these technologies can arguably do more harm than good.

Mark

]]> By: Adam Elkus http://redteamjournal.com/2009/09/fictional-strategies-real-world-answers/comment-page-1/#comment-1829 Adam Elkus Wed, 16 Sep 2009 06:46:09 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1926#comment-1829 I posted something on this at my own blog: http://rethinkingsecurity.typepad.com/rethinkingsecurity/2009/09/application.html In a large part, the issue is that a lot of Sun Tzu-derived stuff simply assumes a level of knowledge (and skill at understanding it) that doesn't really exist for the most part. I posted something on this at my own blog: http://rethinkingsecurity.typepad.com/rethinkingsecurity/2009/09/application.html

In a large part, the issue is that a lot of Sun Tzu-derived stuff simply assumes a level of knowledge (and skill at understanding it) that doesn’t really exist for the most part.

]]> By: Guile http://redteamjournal.com/2009/09/fictional-strategies-real-world-answers/comment-page-1/#comment-1828 Guile Mon, 14 Sep 2009 23:53:04 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1926#comment-1828 Your post has me thinking about spectacularly successful business launches (products/services/just getting the brand in consumers' heads). Lots of buzz words come to mind, perhaps "viral" is one. Has any business been repeatedly "spectacularly successful?" Disney? M$? Apple? Toyota? Google? Many Apple loyalists claim Apple is so consistently great that one gets the perception they "can't miss," and that is not true. Trying to think of example...ahh thanks Google: http://tinyurl.com/2djyej Luck might be present in a large number or majority of "spectacularly successful" business launches. Or sex (witness godaddy.com). "At the end of the day," (ed., pardon my use of this very tired expression) I am not convinced there is a formula that guarantees success; but there is a formula that maximizes the likelihood for a good outcome: the formula that includes a tremendous amount of preparation and some luck. Part of the preparation is indeed understanding context and a decision making process that evaluates the opportunity properly. Your post has me thinking about spectacularly successful business launches (products/services/just getting the brand in consumers’ heads). Lots of buzz words come to mind, perhaps “viral” is one. Has any business been repeatedly “spectacularly successful?” Disney? M$? Apple? Toyota? Google? Many Apple loyalists claim Apple is so consistently great that one gets the perception they “can’t miss,” and that is not true. Trying to think of example…ahh thanks Google:

http://tinyurl.com/2djyej

Luck might be present in a large number or majority of “spectacularly successful” business launches. Or sex (witness godaddy.com).

“At the end of the day,” (ed., pardon my use of this very tired expression) I am not convinced there is a formula that guarantees success; but there is a formula that maximizes the likelihood for a good outcome: the formula that includes a tremendous amount of preparation and some luck. Part of the preparation is indeed understanding context and a decision making process that evaluates the opportunity properly.

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