Comments on: The Southern Flank http://redteamjournal.com/2009/10/the-southern-flank/ Red teaming and alternative analysis for national security and business advantage. Wed, 06 Jul 2011 16:48:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Coach http://redteamjournal.com/2009/10/the-southern-flank/comment-page-1/#comment-1867 Coach Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:30:14 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1952#comment-1867 Correct. There is little information linking al-Qaeda in South America for now. However, Hezbollah appears to be active in the tri-border region, specifically in the area of Puerto Iguazu, Paraguay, long a hub for smuggling. In addition, there has been considerable Arab immigration into S. America, specifically, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras among others. At first it was mainly Christian Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians; after the mid-1980's it took on a more Muslim character (example - Carlos Menem, former Argentine president, born Muslim of Syrian parents, converted to Catholicism to be elected president). They have been active in banking and general commerce. Although the greater majority is made up of law abiding citizens and well assimilated, a small minority can provide cover. (N.B. over a period of 21 years, I lived in Brazil for 4 and traveled extensively to the region during that time, so this is personal observation.) Correct. There is little information linking al-Qaeda in South America for now. However, Hezbollah appears to be active in the tri-border region, specifically in the area of Puerto Iguazu, Paraguay, long a hub for smuggling. In addition, there has been considerable Arab immigration into S. America, specifically, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras among others. At first it was mainly Christian Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians; after the mid-1980′s it took on a more Muslim character (example – Carlos Menem, former Argentine president, born Muslim of Syrian parents, converted to Catholicism to be elected president). They have been active in banking and general commerce. Although the greater majority is made up of law abiding citizens and well assimilated, a small minority can provide cover. (N.B. over a period of 21 years, I lived in Brazil for 4 and traveled extensively to the region during that time, so this is personal observation.)

]]> By: A.E. http://redteamjournal.com/2009/10/the-southern-flank/comment-page-1/#comment-1835 A.E. Thu, 08 Oct 2009 21:30:59 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1952#comment-1835 It was a short blog post that is a stand-in for a longer analysis currently being written. There has been little real open-source research about Iranian motives in Latin America beyond commercial expansion and to cause a thorn in the side of the US. I use the term "mesh", as my last paragraph indicates, as a sign that there is a larger problem of challenge to US security posed by new developments in the southern battlespace. This does not literally mean that Zetas and Iranians are mixing. As for al-Qaeda, there has not been credible open-source evidence of local collaboration. If security degenerates in border regions, however, it might be an ideal space to situate themselves. It was a short blog post that is a stand-in for a longer analysis currently being written. There has been little real open-source research about Iranian motives in Latin America beyond commercial expansion and to cause a thorn in the side of the US.

I use the term “mesh”, as my last paragraph indicates, as a sign that there is a larger problem of challenge to US security posed by new developments in the southern battlespace. This does not literally mean that Zetas and Iranians are mixing.

As for al-Qaeda, there has not been credible open-source evidence of local collaboration. If security degenerates in border regions, however, it might be an ideal space to situate themselves.

]]> By: Guile http://redteamjournal.com/2009/10/the-southern-flank/comment-page-1/#comment-1834 Guile Thu, 08 Oct 2009 20:37:11 +0000 http://redteamjournal.com/?p=1952#comment-1834 Adam, a critical conclusion you reach is that the Iranian "threat" is mixing with Mexican criminal-military entities (paraphrased). First, you have not discussed specific objectives of the Iranians and so what the "threat" is, is rather murky. As you wrote, "More specifics are needed." Second, I interpret your reference to "Mexican criminal-military organizations" to mean the increasingly violent and armed drug cartels. The most obvious (to me anyway) worry about interaction of the drug cartels with representatives of the ME would be a relationship with Al Qaeda. You claim the "Iranian" threat and that from the Mexican criminal-military entities are not intersecting. Then what else can you say about the nature of the "meshing?" Are there any open-source analyses? Adam, a critical conclusion you reach is that the Iranian “threat” is mixing with Mexican criminal-military entities (paraphrased). First, you have not discussed specific objectives of the Iranians and so what the “threat” is, is rather murky. As you wrote, “More specifics are needed.” Second, I interpret your reference to “Mexican criminal-military organizations” to mean the increasingly violent and armed drug cartels. The most obvious (to me anyway) worry about interaction of the drug cartels with representatives of the ME would be a relationship with Al Qaeda.

You claim the “Iranian” threat and that from the Mexican criminal-military entities are not intersecting. Then what else can you say about the nature of the “meshing?” Are there any open-source analyses?

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